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dc.contributor.authorDas, Isha
dc.contributor.authorLauria, Valentina
dc.contributor.authorKay, Susan
dc.contributor.authorCazcarro, Ignacio and Arto, Inaki
dc.contributor.authorFernandes, Jose A.
dc.contributor.authorHazra, Sugata
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-02T08:12:32Z-
dc.date.available2021-07-02T08:12:32Z-
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifierISI:000532697500012
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.azti.es/handle/24689/1108-
dc.description.abstractThe study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socioeconomic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and primary production) to the end of the 21st century. Our results show that an increased temperature (by 4 degrees C) has a negative impact on fisheries productivity, which was projected to decrease by 5\%. At the species level, Bombay duck, Indian mackerel and threadfin bream showed an increasing trend in the biomass of potential catches under the sustainable fishing scenario. However, under the business as usual and overfishing scenarios, our results suggest reduced catch for both states. On the other hand, mackerel tuna, Indian oil sardine, and hilsa fisheries showed a projected reduction in potential catch also for the sustainable fishing scenario. The socio-economic models projected an increase of up to 0.67\% (involving 0.8 billion USD) in consumption by 2050 even under the best management scenario. The GDP per capita was projected to face a loss of 1.7 billion USD by 2050. The loss of low-cost fisheries would negatively impact the poorer coastal population since they strongly depend upon these fisheries as a source of protein. Nevertheless, adaptation strategies tend to have a negative correlation with poverty and food insecurity which needs to be addressed separately to make the sector-specific efforts effective. This work can be considered as the baseline model for future researchers and the policymakers to explore potential sustainable management options for the studied regions. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
dc.language.isoEnglish
dc.publisherELSEVIER
dc.subjectBiogeochemical modelling
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectHilsa
dc.subjectMarine fisheries management
dc.subjectNorth-western Bay of Bengal
dc.subjectPrimary production
dc.subjectFISH PRODUCTION
dc.subjectSOCIOECONOMIC CHANGE
dc.subjectNUTRITION SECURITY
dc.subjectDIET COMPOSITION
dc.subjectIMPACTS
dc.subjectBENGAL
dc.subjectBAY
dc.subjectAQUACULTURE
dc.subjectECOSYSTEMS
dc.subjectDYNAMICS
dc.titleEffects of climate change and management policies on marine fisheries productivity in the north-east coast of India
dc.typeArticle
dc.identifier.journalSCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
dc.format.volume724
dc.contributor.funderDeltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation project under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) program [IDRC 107642]
dc.contributor.funderDepartment for International Development, UK Government (DFID)
dc.contributor.funderInternational Development Research Centre (IDRC), CanadaCGIAR
dc.contributor.funderGipuzkoa Talent Fellowships program, by the Gipuzkoa Provincial Council, Spain
dc.contributor.funderproject ``Bio-Optical Studies and Ecological Modelling in Case II water of West Bengal Coast towards Hilsa Fishery Forecast�� - Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS)
dc.identifier.e-issn1879-1026
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138082
Appears in Publication types:Artículos científicos



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