Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://dspace.azti.es/handle/24689/376
Files in This Item:
File SizeFormat 
are calanus spp..pdf2,17 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Title: Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach
Authors: Chust, Guillem; Castellani, Claudia; Licandro, Priscilla; Sagarminaga, Yolanda; Irigoien, Xabier; Ibaibarriaga, Leire
Citation: ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE, 2014, 71, 241-253
Abstract: In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i. e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time.
Keywords: Calanus; climate change; habitat model; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; PLANKTON-RECORDER DATA; NICHE FACTOR-ANALYSIS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL-NICHE; C-HELGOLANDICUS; VERTICAL-DISTRIBUTION; FISH POPULATIONS; NORWEGIAN SEA; LIFE-CYCLE
Issue Date: 2014
Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS
Type: Article
Language: English
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fst147
URI: http://dspace.azti.es/handle/24689/376
ISSN: 1054-3139
E-ISSN: 1095-9289
Funder: European Commission [264933]
Appears in Publication types:Artículos científicos



Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.