Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Title: Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change
Authors: Villarino, Ernesto; Chust, Guillem; Licandro, Priscilla; Ibaibarriaga, Leire; Larranaga, Aitor; Butenschoen, Momme; Irigoien, Xabier
Citation: MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES, 2015, 531, 121-142
Abstract: Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080-2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatic-biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001-2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (-15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12-13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43-79\% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970-1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987-2004).
Keywords: Zooplankton; Habitat suitability; GAM; Climate change; North Atlantic; Biogeography
Issue Date: 2015
Type: Article
Language: English
DOI: 10.3354/meps11299
ISSN: 0171-8630
E-ISSN: 1616-1599
Funder: European Commission (EURO-BASIN: European Union Basin-Scale Analysis, Synthesis and Integration) \[264933]
Basque Government (Department Deputy of Agriculture, Fishing and Food Policy)
Inaki Goenaga-Technology Centres Foundation
Appears in Publication types:Artículos científicos

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.