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Title: Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
Authors: Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea and Eddy, Tyler D.; Cheung, William W. L.; Galbraith, Eric D. and Barange, Manuel; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Buchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine M.; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta and Dunne, John P.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda C.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa and Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Fernandes, Jose A. and Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Silva, Tiago A. M.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Stock, Charles A.; Verley, Philippe; Volkholz, Jan and Walker, Nicola D.; Worm, Boris
Abstract: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5\% (+/- 4\% SD) under low emissions and 17\% (+/- 11\% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5\% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
Keywords: climate change impacts; marine food webs; global ecosystem modeling; model intercomparison; uncertainty; MARINE FISHERIES; CHANGE IMPACTS; UNCERTAINTIES; ADAPTATION; ECOSYSTEMS; SCENARIOS; PROSPECTS; COASTAL; FUTURE; CATCH
Issue Date: 2019
Type: Article
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900194116
ISSN: 0027-8424
Funder: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through ISI-MIP [01LS1201A1]
European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program [678193, 682602, 689518]
Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G)
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of CanadaNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Kanne Rasmussen Foundation Denmark
NSERC Transatlantic Ocean Science and Technology ProgramNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
Australian Research CouncilAustralian Research Council
French Agence Nationale de la RechercheFrench National Research Agency (ANR)
Pole de Calcul et de Donnees pour la Mer
UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural AffairsDepartment for Environment, Food \& Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
Appears in Publication types:Artículos científicos

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