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Title: Alternative model for precipitation probability distribution: application to Spain
Authors: Moncho, Roberto; Caselles, Vicente; Chust, Guillem
Citation: CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2012, 51, 23-33
Abstract: In climatology, there is difficulty in describing the probability distribution of rainfall because there are many days without precipitation, which usually causes the most likely daily rainfall to be zero. None of the widely used models is able to describe the overall variation of daily precipitation. This article proposes an alternative model for the probability of precipitation. The model, based on 4 parameters, has been applied to daily rainfall throughout all months of the year and for 108 stations in Spain. This alternative model provides better results than the commonly used probability models (Generalized Extreme Value, Pareto and Generalized Pareto Distribution, Gamma, Gumbel, Weibull, Exponential and Log-normal). Our model had a mean absolute error of <10\% for most of the stations analyzed. Thus, this alternative model could be used to correct the probability distributions of daily precipitation obtained from weather forecasting and climate models.
Issue Date: 2012
Type: Article
Language: English
DOI: 10.3354/cr01055
ISSN: 0936-577X
Funder: Department of Environment, Regional Planning, Agriculture and Fisheries of the Basque Government
Appears in Publication types:Artículos científicos

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