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Title: From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs): Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and fisheries
Authors: Maury, O.; Campling, L.; Arrizabalaga, H.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Merino, G.; Squires, D.; Cheung, W.; Goujon, M.; Lefort, S.; Marsac, F.; Monteagudo, P.; Osterblom, H.; Pulvenis, J. F.; Ye, Y.; van Ruijven, B. J.; Guivarch, C.; Murtugudde, R.
Citation: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2017, 45, 203-216
Abstract: There is an urgent need for developing policy-relevant future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper is a milestone toward this aim focusing on open ocean fisheries. We develop five contrasting Oceanic System Pathways (OSPs), based on the existing five archetypal worlds of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate change research (e.g., Nakicenovic et al., 2014 and Riahi et al., 2016). First, we specify the boundaries of the oceanic social-ecological system under focus. Second, the two major driving forces of oceanic social-ecological systems are identified in each of three domains, viz., economy, management and governance. For each OSP (OSP1 ``sustainability first��, OSP2 ``conventional trends��, OSP3 ``dislocation��, OSP4 ``global elite and inequality��, OSP5 ``high tech and market��), a storyline is outlined describing the evolution of the driving forces with the corresponding SSP. Finally, we compare the different pathways of oceanic social-ecological systems by projecting them in the two-dimensional spaces defined by the driving forces, in each of the economy, management and governance domains. We expect that the OSPs will serve as a common basis for future model based scenario studies in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
Keywords: Scenarios; Oceanic fisheries; Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); Oceanic system pathways (OSPs); Economy; Management; Governance; CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH; TUNA FISHERIES; SKIPJACK TUNA; MARINE ECOSYSTEMS; FOOD SECURITY; FRAMEWORK; IMPACTS; FUTURE; BIODIVERSITY; ENVIRONMENT
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Type: Article
Language: English
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.06.007
URI: http://dspace.azti.es/handle/24689/441
ISSN: 0959-3780
E-ISSN: 1872-9495
Funder: UNESCO-IOC
Eur-Oceans
EuroMarine
French ANR, under CEP MACROES (MACRoscope for Oceanic Earth System) [ANR-09-CEP-003]
Appears in Publication types:Artículos científicos



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