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Title: Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
Authors: Tittensor, Derek P.; Novaglio, Camilla; Harrison, Cheryl S. and Heneghan, Ryan F.; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Britten, Gregory L. and Buchner, Matthias; Cheung, William W. L.; Christensen, Villy and Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Everett, Jason D. and Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Gascuel, Didier; Guiet, Jerome; John, Jasmin G. and Link, Jason S.; Lotze, Heike K.; Maury, Olivier and Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Petrik, Colleen M.; du Pontavice, Hubert; Rault, Jonathan; Richardson, Anthony J.; Shannon, Lynne; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Steenbeek, Jeroen and Stock, Charles A.; Blanchard, Julia L.
Citation: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 2021, 11, 973+
Abstract: Use of an enhanced suite of marine ecosystem models and Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) reveals greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass than previously projected under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios. Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
Issue Date: 2021
Type: Article
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
ISSN: 1758-678X
E-ISSN: 1758-6798
Funder: Jarislowsky Foundation
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programmeNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
Australian Research Council (ARC)Australian Research Council [DP170104240, DP190102293, DP150102656]
European UnionEuropean Commission [817578, 869300, 862428]
Spanish National Project ProOceans [PID2020-118097RB-I00]
Open Philanthropy Project
United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub [NE/S008950/1]
Simons Foundation [54993, 645921]
Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project) [ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01]
MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020-2021
Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G)
French ANR project CIGOEFFrench National Research Agency (ANR) [ANR-17-CE32-0008-01]
California Ocean Protection Council [C0100400]
Alfred P. Sloan FoundationAlfred P. Sloan Foundation
Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation [TG-OCE170017]
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association [NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442]
Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation [CEX2019-000928-S]
Research Technology Services at UNSW Sydney
Appears in Publication types:Artículos científicos

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