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dc.contributor.authorErauskin-Extramiana, Maite
dc.contributor.authorArrizabalaga, Haritz
dc.contributor.authorCabre, Anna and Coelho, Rui
dc.contributor.authorRosa, Daniela
dc.contributor.authorIbaibarriaga, Leire
dc.contributor.authorChust, Guillem
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-02T08:12:56Z-
dc.date.available2021-07-02T08:12:56Z-
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifierISI:000554017400003
dc.identifier.issn0967-0645
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.azti.es/handle/24689/1127-
dc.description.abstractSpecies shifts due to climate change are being recorded and reported worldwide. However, the accurate estimation and causal attribution of species shifts using spatial distribution indicators, such as the center of gravity, is challenging. This is particularly problematic for commercially exploited marine species with data from research surveys, commercial fisheries or other data collection methods that are not recorded homogeneously over time and space. Here, we propose a new framework to ascertain whether the changes in the spatial distribution of species are due to changes in habitat conditions, fishing activity or other factors. This approach is developed to help elucidate the main drivers of species shifts and it is based upon the comparison of historical trends in species distribution shifts among raw data and modeled: i) fishing effort, ii) population occurrence and abundance, iii) habitat, and iv) spatio-temporal reconstruction of the species distribution. We apply this new methodology to the case study of swordfish populations worldwide. On a global scale, 2 out of 6 stocks of swordfish shifted latitudinally during 1958-2004. Of those two, only the Mediterranean stock was associated with a linear trend change of its habitat. In two other stocks, the latitudinal center of gravity of populations occurrence varies following their habitats' interannual variability; however, this shift is not linear. We further developed a worldwide habitat suitability model for swordfish and projected its distribution and abundance into the future under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the highest greenhouse gas concentration scenario, by the end of the century. Future projections estimate an overall swordfish decrease of 22\% in CPUE (catch per unit of effort), with substantial decreases in most tropical areas, and a slight increase in its distribution range limits, both in the north and southern hemispheres.
dc.language.isoEnglish
dc.publisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectSwordfish
dc.subjectSpecies distribution model
dc.subjectCenter of gravity
dc.subjectSampling bias
dc.subjectFuture projections
dc.subjectFramework
dc.subjectXIPHIAS-GLADIUS
dc.subjectBROADBILL SWORDFISH
dc.subjectPLANT-DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectNORTH-ATLANTIC
dc.subjectINDIAN-OCEAN
dc.subjectCATCH RATES
dc.subjectFISHERIES
dc.subjectMARINE
dc.subjectSEA
dc.subjectABUNDANCE
dc.titleAre shifts in species distribution triggered by climate change? A swordfish case study
dc.typeArticle
dc.identifier.journalDEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART II-TOPICAL STUDIES IN OCEANOGRAPHY
dc.format.volume175
dc.contributor.funderBasque Government (Agriculture, Fishing, and Food Policy)Basque Government
dc.contributor.funderBasque Government scholarship through Economic Development and Infrastructures DepartmentBasque Government
dc.contributor.funder``Beatriu de Pinos�� fellowship
dc.contributor.funderFCT, the Portuguese Foundation for Science and TechnologyPortuguese Foundation for Science and Technology [IF/00253/2014]
dc.contributor.funderFCTPortuguese Foundation for Science and TechnologyEuropean Commission [SFRH/BD/136074/2018]
dc.identifier.e-issn1879-0100
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.104666
Appears in Publication types:Artículos científicos



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